As trusted advisers to business aviation leadership since 2009, we have continuously been asked to provide judgment calls to some of the industry’s most vexing questions. From the aircraft OEMs, these questions have ranged from: What should we do next? What product do we need to become the market share leader in our segment? How big is the total addressable market for my new aircraft? Why isn’t it bigger than that? How do we fill our sales pipeline? What strategy do we need to penetrate market X to achieve a market share target of YY%? Why do I need to invest in my aircraft when it is at its peak production rate today? What is your forecast for the future? Are younger customers ever going to buy an airplane, or are they just going to share them? What if we see oil sustained at $120 a barrel? Where do I find people who know which way to turn a wrench to tighten a bolt? Are we operating in a bifurcated market? Should I be worried that the Nasdaq is up by a factor of 2.5x in four years? How sustainable is the upmarket? What “black swans” keep you up at night?
Ah, the life of an aviation consultant. Many questions, fewer good answers. Don’t let me be misunderstood—I love what I do, and the questions are fascinating. Answering them—backed with as much empirical data and analytics, our own proprietary indicators, and a healthy dose of judgment by experience—can be rejuvenating, much like the feeling you get after solving a complex puzzle.
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