More than a month has passed since the sudden disappearance of EgyptAir Flight 804 from radar screens and its plunge into the depths of the Mediterranean Sea. The Airbus A320 was flying from Paris to Cairo at 37,000 feet when—according to investigators—it turned left, then rolled to the right before falling into the sea, along with its 56 passengers and crew of 10. Initial speculation about a catastrophic midair explosion–possibly caused by an explosive device–has given way to speculation about a number of other possible causes. But no one knows for sure. And no one will know for sure until the black box data—finally retrieved as I write—has been brought to a laboratory and the data analyzed. Unfortunately, at least one of the black boxes appears to have been damaged. At this point, it’s not known whether the time spent in salt water has done further damage.
Until those black boxes are analyzed, the speculation and theories will remain speculation and theories. No one will know whether the disaster was caused by a problem with the crew’s operation of the aircraft, calling into question EgyptAir’s training and certification of pilots; whether a problem existed with the Airbus A320, which would make checking the thousands of A320s in worldwide operation prudent; or whether security procedures at Charles de Gaulle Airport or other airports the aircraft operated out of need to be scrutinized for lapses.