Within a week of the FAA’s heralding its milestone “achievement,” 1,000 so-called 333 exemptions to allow commercial use of unmanned aerial systems or drones, the agency issued a press release decrying what it calls the huge increase in drone sightings by pilots. According to the FAA, “pilot reports of unmanned aircraft have increased dramatically over the past year, from a total of 238 sightings in all of 2014 to more than 650” by the beginning of August this year. Aside from the fact that the FAA is encouraging reporting, as are aviation groups such as ALPA, which could account for the increase in sightings, the data itself is largely unvetted, with no FAA analysis that I’ve seen of any potential safety impact to the manned aircraft from any of these individual sightings. So, in my opinion, the value of this data for safety purposes is conjectural, at best.
In addition to questioning conclusions that can be drawn from the data, I also question the data itself. Are all these supposed drone sightings–even one at 10,000 feet–actually civilian drones, especially the small and popular consumer drones? It’s doubtful that they are the consumer drones that are selling by the hundreds of thousands in the U.S. and around the world, especially the small white or black drones that measure barely a foot in diameter and are hard for me to see at 300 feet when I know they’re there, let alone being seen from the cockpit of an airliner whizzing by at hundreds of miles per hour. It’s hard to spot single-engine aircraft, let alone tiny drones. I’ve investigated more than one midair in which manned aircraft did not see each other until it was too late–in fact, there have been two recent midairs where military jets collided with GA aircraft–so it’s hard to imagine distinguishing specks in the sky as drones, as opposed to, say, birds or balloons.