Whatever else President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, President Xi, discuss during the state visit this week in Washington, D.C., it seems unlikely that eVTOL aircraft will be on the agenda. Nonetheless, some observers would argue that the broader advanced air mobility (AAM) topic is very relevant to economic tensions between the U.S. and China, touching on unresolved issues around drone technology, trade imbalances, and artificial intelligence applications.
In a presentation to Vaughan College of Aeronautics and Technology on September 18, Chinese AAM expert Louis Liu made the case that while the U.S. and China are rivals in this field, there remains potential for collaboration and “mutual learning.” For instance, in his view, the White House-directed eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, which allows new aircraft developers to launch trial operations in real-world conditions, is based on the approach the Chinese government has taken by giving its eVTOL pioneers significant latitude to launch early use cases ahead of full certification and operating approvals.
According to Liu, whose Beijing-based consultancy DAP Technologies advises AAM companies, the 30 or 40 main Chinese eVTOL companies currently have an edge over Western rivals due to factors such as strong state support for the so-called low-altitude economy. He said that Chinese companies have also been able to deploy lower-cost automotive components and have benefited from the country’s lead in electric vehicles (through dominant groups like BYD and Geely), battery and drone development.
On the other side of the equation, Liu told his Vaughan College that American AAM players have an edge through better access to the “high-end” supply chain for flight controls, avionics and air traffic control technology. He also pointed to the U.S. abundance of experienced aerospace engineers, a highly developed aviation ecosystem, and a firmly embedded safety environment.
Exports Are Imperative
DAP Technologies estimates that China, the U.S. and Europe each enjoy a leadership position in 25% of the global market for eVTOL aircraft, with the remaining quarter open to competitors from other regions. On that basis, Liu believes it is imperative that Chinese companies seek access to international markets for their lower-cost products, and that is where he says they face an uphill struggle.
“The validation of type certificate [process] between the Civil Aviation Administration of China, EASA and FAA is very difficult because the regulatory framework harmonization is not ready,” he told AIN. In the short term, regions like the Middle East and Southeast Asia—and more specifically countries like the UAE and Indonesia—are regarded as the best export paths for Chinese eVTOL manufacturers, including EHang and Aridge.
Liu pointed out that in June Indonesia’s civil aviation agency validated Autoflight’s Chinese type certificate for its V2000CG cargo eVTOL vehicle. “Indonesia has over 17,000 islands so that is a good early-application market,” he commented.
EHang was the first eVTOL manufacturer in the world to achieve type certification for its autonomous EH216-S two-seater in October 2023. The company took another two years to get an air operator certificate, and it is still restricted to very limited sightseeing flights as it strives to break even on its investments.
Western rivals like Joby and Archer have spent far more trying to get their eVTOL models over the certification hurdle. These days, the talk at these companies seems to have shifted from air taxi launches being just around the corner to opportunities for military and freight applications that might prove more attainable, as backers wonder when they might expect a return on substantial investments in Wall Street-listed ventures.
“Even if they get the type certificate and into commercial service, it is very difficult to get a profit,” Liu commented. “The whole business model can’t generate a big cash flow and to keep the businesses running will take a lot of cash.”
Defense Backing
The DAP Technologies founder does not expect the AAM sector to be profitable until 2035 or even 2040. “There is no second pathway for U.S. and European eVTOL developers to survive without military applications at present,” Liu concluded.
By the same token, there is little or no visibility as to whether their Chinese counterparts are benefiting from Beijing’s strong defense budget. While the Pentagon proudly trumpets its contributions to AAM advances, China maintains a veil of secrecy that arguably feeds U.S. suspicions about its rivals’ intentions in the sector.
Liu signaled some hope that President Xi’s visit to Washington could ease some aspects of the geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, with trade policy clearly high on the agenda. He hopes frosty political relations will thaw and create an environment for “win-win relationships” between AAM companies and industry harmonization.
However, President Trump may have had other ideas in mid-August when he imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese drone technology. Liu, who claimed that Elon Musk has viewed China as a role model for his SpaceX and Tesla businesses, does not see this as a short-term move that may buy U.S. eVTOL companies protection for no more than two or three years.
“People will find a pathway to take maximum value for themselves and not pay the 100% tariff,” Liu predicted. “After President Xi visits the U.S., you may see some progress on Chinese electric vehicles entering the U.S. market, and the same principle will work for Chinese drones and supply chain components coming into the U.S. and European markets.”
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