Joseph Carfagna Jr. is president, partner, and CEO of aircraft brokerage and consultancy Leading Edge Aviation Solutions. He has worked in the business aviation industry for more than 30 years and is a seasoned salesman and aviation expert.

Contributor

Joseph Carfagna Jr.

The world is full of speculators, and for a moment, I will be one. The U.S. economy, along with the rest of the world, was thrust into uncertainty two months ago when President Trump imposed tariffs that first were discussed and subsequently went into effect. This had a chilling impact on the corporate aircraft market (oh, and the stock market too). Things were thrown into a state of uncertainty on so many levels that it was impossible to navigate for about six weeks.
How was it going to affect new deliveries from various manufacturers who source parts and materials from all over the globe? Nobody knew, and the facts began to creep out. The rules changed, and more creeped out.
Alright, enough about what has already happened. That’s not speculating.
Just this week, we have heard what may be the perfect storm...in a good way. One week after the April job numbers came in higher than expected (177,000 versus 138,000), Trump was declaring that victory is near with trade agreements with some countries. Then, a 90-day respite was agreed to with the trading partner that has been the primary target—China. Just yesterday, as I wrote this, inflation was announced to be slightly less in April than predicted. The cherry on top of the sundae is the talk about getting bonus depreciation back into the mix, and this also hit the streets in recent days. Even egg prices dropped 13% in April!
Dare I speculate that the vaccine for paralysis amongst aircraft buyers may have just been released and made available? Some markets have remained buoyant over the last two months, but many have ground to a near halt. Something tells me all will start marching again and doing so soon. Uncertainty causes the fence to get crowded with lots of sitters, but as certainty enters the fray, the fence empties out.
We may just be seeing the start of the migration of aircraft buyers from the fence in February back into the marketplace. After the year’s end, the market continued with good activity in January. Barring the unforeseen, we may be headed back to January’s activity levels and then some. Time (but not that much time—back to that speculating) will tell us.
The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and are not necessarily endorsed by AIN Media Group.

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