Do UAVs threaten civil pilot careers? That’s the question that AIN posed to several attendees at a recent conference in Montreal, sponsored by industry trade group Unmanned Systems Canada. The answer: it seems unlikely, other than for young pilots just setting out on their careers, or a small number of pilots flying specialized applications.
Industry representatives were virtually unanimous in the opinion that unmanned freight and passenger operations will happen some day. But most predicted they will not take place until the 2040/2050 time frame. Separate USAF and RTCA studies reflect a similar view. Some expressed the opinion that smaller civil freight operations, using Cessna Caravans and similar aircraft, could commence earlier, should the cost/benefit of replacing pilots with full avionics automation, including autoland, make it feasible. In commercial operations, cost/benefit–or investment payback–is key. For certain specialized operations such as local aerial surveys, however, small, cheap UAVs are already slowly replacing conventional aircraft and their pilots.
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