Osprey Flight Solutions has warned aircraft operators of security risks and threats to jet fuel supplies in the wake of escalating conflict in the Gulf. On Wednesday, the security specialist issued an alert for anticipated missile and drone attacks on airports and oil and gas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia.
On Tuesday, Saudi officials confirmed a fresh wave of drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces based in Yemen, who are now threatening the safe passage of ships passing through the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has yet to reopen its East-West pipeline that was damaged on Saturday by attacks from an Iran-backed militia based in neighboring Iraq.
The tightening of oil supply routes, compounding the long-running disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, has resulted in crude oil prices passing $108 per barrel this week. For the week ending September 11, IATA’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor showed an average global price of $4.32 per gallon, which was 15.6% higher than the previous month. However, during the first week of September, business aircraft operators were already paying much higher full-service prices averaging $7.97 per gallon at FBOs, according to a report by iFlightPlanner.
“Jet fuel prices are expected to continue to rise substantially over the coming month, with availability tightening significantly due to severe constraints on Saudi Arabia's oil export capacity following recent infrastructure attacks,” Matthew Borie, Osprey’s chief intelligence officer, told AIN. “The closure of the critical East-West pipeline and expanding Houthi control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait have forced international crude benchmarks like Brent past $108 per barrel, heavily reducing global refined product supplies and pushing jet fuel near wartime highs.”
According to Adam Cowburn, managing director of Alton Aviation Consultancy, the business aviation sector has proven to be “remarkably resilient” in the face of the problems generated by escalating geopolitical instability. In his view, operators are not very sensitive to fuel price increases because generally these get passed along to customers who can afford to pay more to fly privately.
Osprey has also warned aircraft operators that civil airports co-located with military bases in western and southwestern Saudi Arabia are at heightened risk from ballistic missile and drone attacks by Houthi forces. Pointing to recent attacks on airports in Taif, Abha, Jizan, Najran and Sharurah, the company said that there are increased risks of airspace disruption and closure, prompted by Saudi deployment of air defense systems.
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