Joseph Carfagna Jr. is president, partner, and CEO of aircraft brokerage and consultancy Leading Edge Aviation Solutions. He has worked in the business aviation industry for more than 30 years and is a seasoned salesman and aviation expert.

Contributor

Joseph Carfagna Jr.

In late July, we published comments and accompanying AIN <a href="https://nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fleas.com%2Fone-big-beautiful-benefit%2F&amp;data=05%7C02%7Ckfette%40leas.com%7C526afc40fdc74ecdc0a108de17dceed7%7C824fb7c970d24e4a8852099685c06e76%7C0%7C0%7C638974434823680859%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=wQtHRabEaMQ%2FeudEOJEsznUJarxd4MwjtZyA42icQtA%3D&amp;reserved=0">blog</a> with David Shannon of Lewis Brisbois Bisgaard &amp; Smith shortly after bonus depreciation was enacted on July 4. What we can now say with firm conviction is that what we wrote then is, in fact, playing out.
Activity in the preowned business aircraft market has been very strong since around Labor Day. Once summer wrapped up and everyone got back to work, buyers came forward with clear intentions to purchase aircraft.
The goal here isn’t to pat ourselves on the back for calling it—it’s to underscore how consistently the market responds to year-end, tax-driven buying behavior, and the ripple effects it creates across the industry.
We’ve seen preowned inventory levels drop for the highest-quality makes and models. Prices have firmed up and, in some cases, even risen modestly for the most desirable late-model aircraft. Pre-purchase inspection slots have become harder to find, and overall, we’ve transitioned firmly into a seller’s market.
Simply put, the industry is running near capacity. We are not seeing the crazy rush causing consequences, but it’s only the end of October.
That’s good news for those of us who do what we do, and for most AIN subscribers. Anyone working in and around corporate aircraft is busy right now, and that’s the bottom line.
So what happens when the party winds down in early 2026? History suggests there may be a brief hangover period when the most strategic buyers start shopping for preowned aircraft. We’ll likely see lighter activity and a return to a more normal or even slower pace in the first part of the year. But with 100% expensing still in place for 2026, it’s fair to expect a similar rhythm to this year once we get past that initial lull.
Of course, the biggest factors shaping our industry usually come from outside, not within. Think of the 2008 financial crash or Covid-19—those are the kinds of macro events that truly move the needle. On the micro level, the indicators we’re watching suggest fuel prices will remain relatively low in the near term. So if you work in this business, plan your vacations for January or February—because until then, it’s all hands on deck.

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