'Lost Decade' for Light and Midsize Bizjets Nears End: Citi Analyst | Aviation International News

'Lost Decade' for Light and Midsize Bizjets Nears End: Citi Analyst

The light and midsize jet markets have now “found a floor” since deliveries exceeded long-term trends in the 2000s.

The light and midsize jets appear to be ending what Citi Research calls their "lost decade," with deliveries expected to be flat in these segments over the rest of this decade. Still, that news could bode well for sales and deliveries of newer entrants such as the midsize Embraer Legacy 500. (Photo: Embraer Executive Jets)

By Chad Trautvetter • Online Editor

December 4, 2017

The light and midsize business jet segments appear to be mostly through the “lost decade.” But for large-cabin jets, which largely dodged this problem, headwinds could be in the forecast, according to Jon Raviv, the U.S. aerospace and defense senior equity analyst at Citi Research, who spoke last week at the Corporate Jet Investor Miami conference. Citi introduced its “lost decade” thesis in 2013, which said that excess aircraft production in the 2000s created a “shadow” pre-owned inventory that led to an anemic post-Great Recession recovery.

According to Raviv, the light and midsize jet markets have now “found a floor” since deliveries exceeded long-term trends in the 2000s, which “cannibalized” demand for new aircraft this decade. He is calling for flat deliveries in these segments over the next three years, averaging 444 aircraft annually.

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