Slower commercial traffic growth—in part triggered by the economic fallout from the Iran war—could mean that airlines are less concerned about continuing delays to new aircraft deliveries, according to consulting group McKinsey. Briefing reporters on data from its latest industry whitepaper on Thursday, McKinsey partner Frank Coleman suggested that, in weakening market conditions, getting some breathing space before receiving new equipment might suit their short-term tactical needs quite well.
In the longer term, though, McKinsey envisages what partner Kevin Sachs described as “a return to normalcy” with more than 2,000 narrowbodies in the global fleet beyond their expected retirement age. While noting that maintenance organizations and leasing companies have benefited from the deferred replacement of older aircraft, the group does not expect carriers to ask OEMs to push back deliveries of new equipment even further, not least because slots are so hard to get.
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