Contributor - Europe

Cathy Buyck

Boeing has upgraded its 20-year demand forecast for commercial jets and now predicts that airlines will need 43,975 new airplanes over the next 20 years.
The revised forecast, released ahead of the Farnborough Airshow, represents an increase of 1,375 aircraft over its previous forecast, which the U.S. airframer attributes to the faster-than-expected recovery of air travel after Covid-19. Four years after the pandemic grounded most of the global fleet, air traffic growth is reconnecting with previous trends and will rise an average of 4.7% annually over the next two decades, according to Boeing’s 2024 commercial market outlook (CMO).
Boeing’s main rival, Airbus, also upwardly revised its industry-wide delivery forecast, projecting a need for 42,430 new passenger and freighter deliveries&nbsp;between 2024 and 2043 period, versus the 40,850 airplanes anticipated in its global market forecast last year.
“This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges," said Brad&nbsp;McMullen, Boeing's senior vice president of commercial sales and marketing.
The Boeing CMO projects that the global passenger and freighter fleet will nearly double over the next 20 years to 50,170 planes. Of the new deliveries, 47% (20,565 jets) will replace older aircraft with more fuel-efficient models to improve sustainability, and 53% (23,410 jets) will support growth.
Single-aisle airplanes will account for 71% of the 2043 fleet and 76% of new deliveries (33,380 jets) over the next 20 years. Widebodies will account for 17% of deliveries (8,065 units), while regional jets make up 4% (1,525) and freighters at 2% (1,005).
The world air cargo market demand will top 2,800 freighters by 2043, according to Boeing. Boeing's forecast calls for 1,250 so-called standard-body freighters (less than 40 tonnes), 785 medium widebodies (40 to 80 tonnes), and 810 large widebodies with cargo capacities exceeding 80 tonnes. Passenger-to-freighter conversions will boost the cargo fleet by 1,795 aircraft in the 2024-2043 period.
By region, Eurasia and Asia Pacific will lead all markets with the most airplane deliveries (22% of total each), with&nbsp;North America&nbsp;(21%) and&nbsp;China&nbsp;(20%) close behind. The Middle East will take delivery of 7% of all new aircraft in the 2024-2043 period, said the report.

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