Gregory Polek has spent his entire career in aviation journalism with AIN, starting as a proofreader and assistant to then-managing editor Mary Mahoney in 1995 after serving an internship with&nbsp;New Jersey Monthly&nbsp;magazine and completing his B.A. degree in English/Writing at New Jersey’s William Paterson College. By 1997 Polek accepted a position as an associate editor, covering the regional airline beat for&nbsp;Aviation International News&nbsp;in place of retiring industry veteran Don Anderson. The assignment took Polek across North America and Europe to profile regional airlines varying in size and mission from the likes of floatplane operators Kenmore Air and Chalk’s Ocean Airways to regional jet operators such as SkyWest and American Eagle. Today, in his dual role as Air Transport Editor and International Airshow Editor, Polek writes, edits, and manages AIN’s commercial aviation content while overseeing each of the company’s daily international air show publications in Paris, Farnborough, Singapore, and Dubai. Most recently Polek has assumed oversight of daily coverage of the Helicopter Association International’s annual Heli-Expo convention.

Senior Editor

Gregory Polek

The commercial aircraft leasing market appears headed for considerable turmoil in 2021 as lessors prepare for the return of more than 1,000 aircraft without clear options for onward placement, according to aviation consultancy IBA. In a recent webinar, IBA outlined how before the start of the pandemic operators planned to return about 1,300 aircraft, including 200 widebodies, to their lessors in 2021. IBA said it believes that, while those operators would likely have extended the majority of those leases, that option now appears extremely unlikely.

 


IBA forecasts that, due to the drop in demand caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the vast majority of those aircraft will not draw follow-on leases secured at the point of return. With airline failures and increasing numbers of airlines looking to terminate longer leases earlier due to restructuring, the number of aircraft returning to lessors without onward placement will only increase, said IBA.

 


As a result of the uncertainty, the model established in recent years of seamless redeliveries between lessees will likely break, and IBA expects a higher level of disputes between airlines and lessors around lease returns and redeliveries.

 


IBA also forecasts that the fall in aircraft leasing activity will drive a corresponding fall in engine shop visits. Prior to Covid-19, IBA forecasts called for those visits to rise from 3,200 in 2019 to 4,500 by 2023. It now projects only 1,000 shop visits this year, and it will take until 2026 to reach the originally forecast 2019 levels. As a result, IBA expects MROs to introduce more flexibility into their shop visit programs.

 


“The buoyancy in the commercial aircraft leasing market of the last few years is being brought to an abrupt end by Covid, and we foresee a significant impact not only on lessors but across the supply ecosystem—particularly in the MRO sector,” said IBA president Phil Seymour.

 


IBA also addressed the unique circumstances of the Boeing 737 Max’s coming return to service. Not only has the extended storage period for the aircraft created a set of technical issues that will need addressing, but aircraft manufactured during the grounding period have swelled the number of grounded airplanes to more than 750.

 


“It’s crucial for Boeing that it handles the Max’s return to service efficiently and without incident,” said Seymor. “Given the large number of aircraft involved, we forecast this process will take up to two years.”

News and developments about airplanes, helicopters and unmanned air vehicles used in all varieties of operations, including airlines, military, business, commercial, general aviation and private.

IBA Sees Pandemic Generating Glut of Aircraft for Lease

Lessees prepare to return more than 1,000 commercial aircraft without “clear options” for onward placement.

2024 Corporate Aviation Leadership Summit

Charlotte Bailey

News and issues about aviation maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), covering all segments of the aviation industry; and modifications for aircraft and engines. Subjects include product support of aircraft, engines and avionics, MRO company mergers, acquisitions, announcements and personnel, Airworthiness Directives, Supplemental Type Certificate approvals and other topics.

News and information on safety procedures and concerns.

News and issues relating to the aerospace industry that are related to the science, engineering and business of flight in space involving civil, industrial and military applications, and similar topics related to flight in the atmosphere of the Earth that are not covered more directly by other AINonline subject channels. In other words, both astronautical and aeronautical subjects, except for those aeronautical topics that are specifically covered elsewhere on this website.

ATR 72 aircraft performs pre-modification flight in Toulouse

Kepplair Starts Converting ATR 72 Into Water Bombers

Curt Epstein

News and issues relating to business, corporate and private aviation, primarily regarding turbine-engine-powered airplanes and helicopters. Subjects include aircraft, engines, maintenance, operations, personnel, acquisitions, accidents, safety, security, and training.

Only the piston aircraft segment posted a decline

GAMA: Bizjets, T-props, and Rotorcraft Deliveries Up

Hanneke Weitering

Two captains held the prototype 33 feet above the water for 30 seconds

Regent Flies Electric Seaglider with Crew for First Time

News about bills, laws, regulations and other governmental decisions affecting aviation and aerospace. Topics include FAA re-authorizations, taxes on fuel and aviation activities, environmental legislation, ICAO decisions, governmental mediation of labor conflicts and World Trade Organization disputes and decisions.

Icing approval would open year-round service to northern communities

Horizon Begins Icing Tests for Cavorite X7 eVTOL

Kerry Lynch

Deal to close this year

Bombardier To Grow Manufacturing Capacity with MHICA Buy

David Donald

Essential news and analysis on the defense aerospace business. Your trusted source for new and ongoing programs and requirements in military aircraft (manned and unmanned), engines, avionics, weapons and associated systems, including ground-based air defense.

The two NATO allies will purchase seven of the tanker/transport aircraft

Spain and Poland Agree to Buy A330MRTT Tanker Transports

News and developments about aircraft engines, including turbofan, turboprop, turboshaft and piston.

News and issues relating to international air transport and cargo carriers, national airlines and regional airlines, including aircraft, engines, personnel, acquisitions, accidents, safety, security and training.

GE Aerospace has tested the GE9X, Leap 1A, Leap 1B, and more with the 747.

GE Aerospace Flies Boeing 747 To Test New Engine Tech

Charles Alcock

News about commercial airlines, including regulations, aircraft orders, safety, acquisitions, and mergers.

News about environmental issues relating to aircraft operations, including noise issues, emissisions, and regulations. See Fuel for biofuel.

More In Aircraft