Aviation International News senior correspondent Ian Goold has been involved in aerospace since 1964 and in aviation media for more than 40 years. He enjoyed a 20-year career at Flight International magazine, where he was latterly air-transport editor before turning freelance in 1993. A winner of the European Regions Airline Association Hank McGonagle award for excellence in aerospace journalism and a Royal Aeronautical Society Aerospace Journalist of the Year global&nbsp;award, he has edited or contributed to aerospace and aviation magazines, special publications, and websites in Africa, Asia/Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and North and South America. Ian entered aerospace as an apprentice at the British Aircraft Corporation at Brooklands (Weybridge), where he worked on production and final assembly lines of the Vickers Super VC10, and BAC One-Eleven , and manufacture of Concorde major sub-assemblies. He subsequently graduated from the BAC Design Training School to work in the airframe structures drawing office (including design of international future projects, such as the Panavia Tornado multi-role combat aircraft) before joining Flight International in 1973. Apart from years of reading aircraft magazines and books, his first direct contact with aviation media had come during the early 1970s when he was involved at Brooklands with the Weybridge Man-powered Aircraft Group, which designed and built the tenth aircraft to fly under purely human power. As an aviation journalist, he has worked at more than&nbsp; 50 of the major biennial&nbsp;global and regional international aerospace industry shows at Le Bourget, Farnborough, Singapore, and Dubai (having missed attending only one "Farnborough" since 1960), plus innumerable NBAA, HAI, (U.S.) AOPA, and EBACE Conventions and ERA Assemblies. His favourite aircraft is the Hawker Hunter, of which – as a schoolboy – he heard hundreds make their first flights from Dunsfold, where also on September 24, 2013, he saw the penultimate landing of the VC10 (happily involving an example of which he had witnessed the maiden takeoff in 1970) a day before the last example made the design's final flight (unless, of course....).

Senior correspondent

Ian Goold

The Middle East, most particularly the Arabian (or Persian) Gulf area, is the center of the commercial-aviation universe, according to the manufacturers. "The unique geographic positioning allows [local] carriers to capture a significant share of long-haul market growth," according to Embraer. "The concept of connecting through the region is decades old, but the competitive landscape is ripe for broadening and passengers will likely benefit from increased competition."

 


Airbus agrees, pointing out that the location provides an aviation stepping stone between almost any two global geographic points: “Most people are just one flight away from the Middle East. The region’s proximity to the world’s population and growth markets has been a key in its aviation success."

 


Operating at the crossroads between Asia, Africa, and Europe, the region's airlines are well positioned to compete for connecting traffic, says Boeing, which forecasts 20-year Middle East demand for 3,350 jet passenger and cargo aircraft of all sizes. "About 80 percent of the world’s population lives within an eight-hour flight. Growth prospects for these connecting markets are strong—driven by expected improvements in regional GDP per capita."

 


Boeing characterizes leading long-haul airlines "in or near the Middle East" as "global 'super-connector' carriers," a sub-category of network airlines, whose location will "help drive higher-than-average growth on those routes." These airlines have a “one-stop-to-anywhere” business model that focuses on providing connections between markets to the east and west of their hubs and helps drive higher-than-average growth on those routes. Boeing says that the region's carriers have captured significant [market] share from Europe to destinations such as Australia, India, and Southeast Asia.

 


The Middle East, which Airbus does not define by constituent territories, will need some 2,588 new passenger and cargo aircraft by 2036, approximately 520 for replacement of older-generation aircraft, and around 2,070 for growth, says the European manufacturer. It expects 730 current machines to remain in service in 20 years' time. The perceived demand comprises 1,082 single-aisle and 1,078 twin-aisle designs, and 428 very-large aircraft (VLA), plus 22 midsize and 40 large freighters. {[These numbers do not add up. I added the numbers in the last sentence and got 2650, which is about 100 more aircraft than is mentioned in the first sentence. I do not have the press release to resolve}}

 


Boeing sees requirements in the region (including Egypt and Iran, but not Turkey) for 3,350 new jetliners: 20 regional jets (of up to 90 seats), 1,770 single-aisle machines, 590 small twin-aisle designs, 910 medium, large and very-large twin-aisle aircraft and 60 freighters of all sizes.

 


Canadian manufacturer Bombardier, whose Middle East market forecast includes Cyprus, Iran, Israel, Turkey and 12 regular Arab states, estimates a 20-year market for 200 large regional aircraft (with at least 60 seats) and 250 machines in the up-to-150 passenger single-aisle category.

 


Embraer predicts Middle East requirements for 2,440 new airliners over the coming 20 years. Demand for these aircraft arises from fast-expanding traffic (revenue passenger-miles/kilometres (RPM/K), the Brazilian manufacturer saying that by 2036, the Middle East and Asia Pacific will be the quickest-growing markets at an average annual growth of "around 6 percent." For their parts, Airbus and Boeing put such growth at slightly lower rates of 5.9 and 5.6 percent per .year, respectively, compared with global increases they put at 4.4 and 4.6 percent, respectively.

 


Origin and destination (O&amp;D) traffic to, from, and within the region has grown, says Airbus. "In Dubai, for example, 46 percent of passenger traffic is O&amp;D, with a further 17 percent intra-regional connecting passengers" starting and ending journeys in the Middle East.

 


The Middle Eastern economic outlook "remains supported by substantial petroleum resources, proximity to energy-intensive Asian economies, growing tourism potential, and strategically important geopolitical location," according to Airbus. It nevertheless reports that economic growth is currently restrained by "low oil prices and fiscal tightening."

 


<h2>Right-Sizing</h2>

 


With particular interest in the large regional and small single-aisle aircraft that fly "a majority of intra-regional routes," Bombardier notes falling Middle East airline profitability. "Double-digit capacity growth in the past two years was achieved at the expense of decreasing yields due to [the] emergence of low-cost carriers."

 


The Canadian manufacturer sees the Middle East lagging behind global markets in terms of regional penetration, a situation it expects to change with "intra-regional traffic to grow at [8.8 percent annually]. Fleets in the 60- to 150-seat segment will need to grow to match passenger growth."

 


Bombardier predicts that higher market penetration and improved yields will follow if airlines can more closely match capacity to traveler numbers through so-called "right-sizing" of equipment.

 


And that could happen, given an expected slowdown in twin-aisle aircraft deliveries in the region. "This presents a great opportunity for fleet planners to re-examine and re-balance the fleet mix to develop intra-regional connectivity, which has been largely bypassed in favour of inter-regional networks."

 


Embraer agrees: "Intra-Middle East flow will be an increasingly large part of traffic," connecting through major hubs or in point-to-point operation linking secondary cities. "Indeed, there is plenty of room to right-size [down] from large narrow-bodies and even wide-bodies (often used as de facto regional aircraft)."

 


For Airbus, airlines' right-sizing in the region means being prepared for local growth. "The five 'mega' cities in the Middle East will more than double to eleven over the next 20 years."

 


Warning that regional economic development is countered by a continued cycle of local conflict, Bombardier concludes that geopolitics will heavily influence developments. "As the world’s crude inventory remains at record levels and other non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continue to ramp-up production, Middle Eastern countries will need to adapt for long-term prosperity."

News and developments about airplanes, helicopters and unmanned air vehicles used in all varieties of operations, including airlines, military, business, commercial, general aviation and private.

Regional Sales Forecasts Reflect Importance of Middle East as Hub

Middle East is the center of the commercial aviation universe due to perfect location in world.

2024 Corporate Aviation Leadership Summit

Charlotte Bailey

News and issues about aviation maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), covering all segments of the aviation industry; and modifications for aircraft and engines. Subjects include product support of aircraft, engines and avionics, MRO company mergers, acquisitions, announcements and personnel, Airworthiness Directives, Supplemental Type Certificate approvals and other topics.

News and information on safety procedures and concerns.

News and issues relating to the aerospace industry that are related to the science, engineering and business of flight in space involving civil, industrial and military applications, and similar topics related to flight in the atmosphere of the Earth that are not covered more directly by other AINonline subject channels. In other words, both astronautical and aeronautical subjects, except for those aeronautical topics that are specifically covered elsewhere on this website.

ATR 72 aircraft performs pre-modification flight in Toulouse

Kepplair Starts Converting ATR 72 Into Water Bombers

Curt Epstein

News and issues relating to business, corporate and private aviation, primarily regarding turbine-engine-powered airplanes and helicopters. Subjects include aircraft, engines, maintenance, operations, personnel, acquisitions, accidents, safety, security, and training.

Only the piston aircraft segment posted a decline

GAMA: Bizjets, T-props, and Rotorcraft Deliveries Up

Hanneke Weitering

Two captains held the prototype 33 feet above the water for 30 seconds

Regent Flies Electric Seaglider with Crew for First Time

News about bills, laws, regulations and other governmental decisions affecting aviation and aerospace. Topics include FAA re-authorizations, taxes on fuel and aviation activities, environmental legislation, ICAO decisions, governmental mediation of labor conflicts and World Trade Organization disputes and decisions.

Icing approval would open year-round service to northern communities

Horizon Begins Icing Tests for Cavorite X7 eVTOL

Kerry Lynch

Deal to close this year

Bombardier To Grow Manufacturing Capacity with MHICA Buy

David Donald

Essential news and analysis on the defense aerospace business. Your trusted source for new and ongoing programs and requirements in military aircraft (manned and unmanned), engines, avionics, weapons and associated systems, including ground-based air defense.

The two NATO allies will purchase seven of the tanker/transport aircraft

Spain and Poland Agree to Buy A330MRTT Tanker Transports

News and developments about aircraft engines, including turbofan, turboprop, turboshaft and piston.

News and issues relating to international air transport and cargo carriers, national airlines and regional airlines, including aircraft, engines, personnel, acquisitions, accidents, safety, security and training.

GE Aerospace has tested the GE9X, Leap 1A, Leap 1B, and more with the 747.

GE Aerospace Flies Boeing 747 To Test New Engine Tech

Charles Alcock

News about commercial airlines, including regulations, aircraft orders, safety, acquisitions, and mergers.

News about environmental issues relating to aircraft operations, including noise issues, emissisions, and regulations. See Fuel for biofuel.

More In Aircraft