With crude oil prices hovering around $100 a barrel, down from the peak of more than $112 per barrel seen earlier this month, some in the industry are pondering the knock-on effects on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and whether petroleum can rise so high to erase the pricing delta between the two. Since the start of the Iran war, the average price per gallon of jet fuel in the U.S. has more than doubled, while in Europe it has reached record highs, with the cost of refined jet-A topping $250 a barrel.
“It’s tempting to draw a straight line between high oil prices and a moment where SAF suddenly ‘wins’ on cost,” said Emily Tobler, 4Air’s sustainability program manager. “In a severe scenario, where crude triples [in price], we could see retail jet fuel prices approaching the mid- to high teens per gallon in certain markets, but those prices would reflect extreme disruption, shortages, and rationing, not a healthy market where cost parity between SAF and conventional jet fuel suddenly flips.”
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