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Leeham News and Analysis Staff

At the start of each year, Leeham News and Analysis gives its assessment of the challenges and opportunities facing leading aerospace companies. Here is a summary of its key observations about Embraer, with full versions of this and other reports available to <a href="https://leehamnews.com/subscriptions/">subscribers</a>.
Ostensibly, the Brazilian aerospace and defense group has begun 2026 in a good position to resume its role as a potential disruptor to the Airbus-Boeing duopoly in the air transport sector. In that context, the Brazilian airframer is known to be exploring an airliner design in the 180- to 240-seat range, but analysts generally take the view that these plans are unlikely to be confirmed this year.
Embraer’s near-term priority is likely to be <a href="https://leehamnews.com/2025/09/10/embraer-e2-finally-breaks-into-the-u-s-market-following-50-firm-orders-50-purchase-rights-from-ulcc-avelo-airlines/">maximizing sales of the existing E-Jet E2 family</a>, not launching a new mainline aircraft that would directly compete with those offered by its U.S. and European rivals.&nbsp;In its most recent financial and delivery guidance published in November 2025, the group said it expected to deliver between 77 and 85 commercial aircraft and 145 to 155 executive jets for the full year.
If confirmed in its year-end results on March 6, this would represent an increase over the 73 new aircraft commercial aviation reached and 130 executive aircraft deliveries in 2024. It hopes to build on this in the next 12 months.&nbsp;
Embraer president and CEO Francisco Gomes Neto told investors on a November earnings call that his company was “experiencing a highly positive phase, a strong indication that our strategy driven by efficiency and innovation is delivering solid results and effectively supporting our sustainable growth.”
Tied to this focus on sales are a series of commercial agreements intended to help build opportunities in the defense, <a href="https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/futureflight/2025-12-19/eve-makes-first-flight-evtol-aircraft-prototype">eVTOL aircraft</a>, and commercial aviation sectors, including for the E2 in markets not yet exploited.
These have included Turkish Aerospace, KAI and DAPA in South Korea, and SAMI in Saudi Arabia. In India, Embraer has established a fully owned Indian subsidiary while also partnering with the Mahindra Group on the C-390 multi-role military aircraft.&nbsp;
These agreements serve multiple purposes, including political alignment, supply-chain diversification, and adding options for future final assembly or risk-sharing.
How much these industrial partnerships are designed to lay the groundwork for a future new airplane design is yet to be seen.&nbsp;
Certainly, Embraer is looking to expand the E2's footprint across multiple continents—mindful that the new family has yet to match the sales success of the original E170/175 design.
In the Middle East, Embraer says only 22% of available seat kilometers are dedicated to intra-regional routes, which is below Europe’s 52% and North America’s 64%. “This gap underscores a significant opportunity,” the company says, including small narrowbody aircraft such as the E2, which could “unlock over 120 unserved city pairs.”
The same is true in China. For the past two decades, Embraer has highlighted the reliance of Chinese airlines on narrowbody aircraft with 150-plus seats, a strategy it says was suited to rapid trunk-market expansion. “The limits of this model have become increasingly clear,” as the market has matured and growth has slowed, it said.
Embraer hopes to reap the rewards of a target of 1.5 billion annual travelers in the country by 2035, where a “structural imbalance in fleet composition” means that more than 80% of China’s single-aisle aircraft are large narrowbody jets. Sub-90-seat jet aircraft account for just 5% of the Chinese fleet, versus 26% in North America.
A limited number of E-Jets are operated by Chinese carriers such as Tianjin Airlines, GX Airlines, and Colorful Guizhou Airlines. But in the next 20 years, China is expected to see demand for 1,630 aircraft with 150 seats and fewer, and both the E190-E2 and E195-E2 are certified by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (though IP protection and market access—particularly in the context of competition with state-owned airframer Comac—will need to be worked through).

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