FutureFlight On The Radar
Morgan Stanley Downgrades Early Estimates of Urban Air Mobility Market Size
A report from the investment bank says a tougher-than-anticipated path to regulatory approval and service entry for eVTOL aircraft means investors will have to be more patient about the scale and pace of financial returns.

Morgan Stanley has slashed its initial projected value for the global total addressable market (TAM) for eVTOL aircraft in urban air mobility (UAM) applications by a third. In a report updating its prognosis from December 2018, the investment bank has lowered its anticipated TAM level for 2040 from $1.5 trillion to $1 trillion. But the figure is now expected to rise to $9 trillion by 2050.

The report’s eight-strong research team is not definitively concluding that the UAM gold rush has reached peak excitement, or even that a descent into the trough of despair is inevitable. The message from eVTOL/Urban Air Mobility TAM Update: A Slow Take Off, But the Sky’s the Limit seems to be a case of “curb your enthusiasm, and brace for deferred rewards.”