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Industry leaders are anticipating the continued post-pandemic strength to carry over into 2024, albeit at a slightly more muted pace. But the supply chain remains on everybody’s minds.
Eric Hinson, president and CEO of Simcom Aviation Training in Orlando—and outgoing chair of the General Aviation Manufacturers Association—is among those cautiously bullish about the industry’s future.
“Pilot training demand for general and business aviation remained strong through 2023,” Hinson told AIN. “And while total flying hours have abated slightly, we predict healthy training demand to continue in 2024.”
Hinson noted the struggles surrounding the supply chain but remained hopeful that an easing may be on the horizon. “Due to ongoing supply chain constraints, our OEM partners have not been able to meet 100 percent of the current demand for new aircraft,” he said. “At some point, perhaps in 2024, when demand begins to moderate, the strong backlog driven by supply chain challenges will limit the amplitude of the next cycle. That would benefit everyone, OEMs, suppliers, and service providers, as abrupt changes in production rates, up or down, stress the entire system.”
At the same time, Hinson said that in 2024, the industry is closely watching "the race to certification in the advanced air mobility space.” He remarked that several manufacturers have targeted 2024 or 2025 for initial certification.
“While that timeline may prove optimistic, we expect significant progress next year,” he said. “And with one or two exceptions, developers of these aircraft plan to, at least initially, use pilots. This will drive significant new demand for pilot training. I also believe, with newly confirmed Administrator Whitaker in place, the FAA will be on a more positive trajectory in 2024 and be in a better position to enable our collective efforts to advance aviation safety, technology, and innovation.”
Aircraft dealers, meanwhile, are also watching the supply chain dynamic involving the OEMs, but still see a continued leveling of the market in 2024.
“My crystal ball perspective isn’t always fail-safe but overall, I foresee stabilization continuing through 2024,” Phil Winters, chair of the International Aircraft Dealers Association (IADA) and v-p of aircraft sales and charter management with Western Aircraft, told AIN. “The most interesting thing to watch, for me, in 2024 is the supply chain relative to the OEM demand on those suppliers. Historically, the OEMs will make as many airplanes as they can, especially the Wall Street-owned OEMs, prior to a downturn, right? The year 2024 is certainly going to be an interesting one in a lot of areas.”
As for the market in 2024, Winters said business aircraft ownership supply and demand are expected to continue the stabilization trajectory that they’ve been on in 2023. “The real question on analysts’ minds will be about supply and demand pressure on OEMs and their vendors,” he said. “Can they reach each others' demands through the course of 2024? And will that shorten the book-to-bill ratio of OEM backlogs? That is probably going to happen to some degree.”
Vendors will get better, he continued, “and as they do, OEMs may push a bit harder for more production. Then, will the new airplane market demand be able to keep the book-to-bill ratios healthy for the OEMs? And by healthy, I suggest greater than one-to-one. Or will the backlogs shrink and shorten the wait time for new airplanes?”
As for the future health of the aviation industry, he noted potential pitfalls. “On everyone’s list of variables is inflation, regional conflicts, and the noise of the U.S. election year,” Winters said. “In the next year, interest rate challenges will exist for some borrowers, especially in the lower- to mid-size markets, as the Fed tries to address inflation. International hotspots might dampen enthusiasm in some regional markets. And in the past, we’ve had good U.S. election years and we’ve had bad election years. It’s not predictable, really, other than that there is going to be a lot of negative noise most likely, and a lot of division, which can slow the market.”
IADA executive director Wayne Starling amplified Winters’s insights with this latest IADA data for 2023. Noting that IADA’s membership accounts for 50 percent of all the preowned jet transactions worldwide, Starling said, “One thing we track each month is the number of transactions where the price is reduced and/or the transaction falls apart. This gives us an instant picture of any swings that are taking place. Last quarter, both categories showed a slight decrease.”
This signifies that buyers and sellers are coming together on asking and offering prices, Starling explained. “We [have been] expecting a solid fourth quarter. The supply chain is still problematic as some transactions are on hold because of a shortage of parts and a lack of pre-buy slots. This will affect the first quarter as we will see a backlog carryover.”
On the charter and management side, Ryan Waguespack, a partner with the private investment firm Jetquity, warned of several challenges but also pointed to opportunities ahead in 2024. One of the challenges is finding and retaining enough talent, both at the employee level and as our leadership continues to retire, Waguespack said. At the same time, “I would say we've got a real opportunity to start weaving in more technologies and more analytics into our products and to improve what we're offering our customers as it relates to supply chain forecasting and the operational scope of managing their assets.
“I think for the most part that we're seeing some significant stickiness with the consumers that came in during Covid. I think this is our opportunity to really reshape the next five to 10 years in business aviation.”
As for the economic health of aviation in 2024, and the notion that things are slowing down after the post-pandemic boom? “From a macro standpoint, I think we're in a strong position if we can maintain this level of service,” said Waguespack. “I do get concerned. We see charter activities declining, but overall flight activities are fairly stabilized.”
As the aviation industry enters 2024, Waguespack said it is starting from a place of reasonable economic shape. “We started seeing some cracks and some challenges recently, but I think overall we're up in a fairly healthy spot,” he told AIN. “Q4 2023 has been good. Q1 2024 is shaping up already, so that's good. We just need to keep these airplanes flying and keep our quality folks retained.”

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