Rolland Vincent

All eyes in the business aviation industry are soon to be focused on Geneva, the home of EBACE 2018. With only about 200,000 residents, and much like the snow-capped Alps in its periphery, Geneva is a textbook high achiever. It is a small yet global city hosting a broad collection of international agencies, multinational corporations, and financial institutions, and some of the finest watchmakers the world has ever produced.
Whether you call it Geneva, Genève, Genf, Genevra, or just simply “expensive,” the city is one of the world’s foremost centers of international diplomacy, religious culture, arts, and education. Host of the world-renowned Salon international de l'automobile, Geneva’s Palexpo convention center showcases the latest and greatest technologies to welcoming audiences.
Smartly located right on Geneva Airport—thus eliminating the dreaded “shuttle bus to the static display”—Palexpo is expected to welcome more than 12,000 attendees through its doors to the 18th annual EBACE from May 29 to 31. A joint effort of NBAA and EBAA, the show is arguably the best single opportunity to meet with the industry’s “movers and shakers,” all under one roof and on the adjoining airport ramp.
Geneva Airport (GVA), formerly and still unofficially known as Cointrin Airport, is consistently ranked as the second-busiest European airfield for business jet operations, only behind Paris Le Bourget—a city with more than 10 times Geneva’s population. Business jets currently represent about one in six movements at GVA, an impressive achievement for a facility with a single paved runway. A testament to Swiss precision and efficiency, GVA and the Palexpo assembly halls consistently attract global business, and business aviation, from afar.
More broadly, Europe is home base to almost 4,000 business aircraft, including more than 2,600 jets and 1,300 turboprops. Collectively, these aircraft represent about 11 percent of the world fleet. Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Austria, and Switzerland are the five largest markets for Europe-based business jets, together accounting for 58 percent of the European fleet.
The Euro Area (or EA19), a group of 19 countries that have adopted the euro as their common currency, has enjoyed a steady economic recovery from a “double dip” recession in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. The EA19 economy has now expanded in each of the last 17 quarters, reaching an impressive 2.7 percent annualized growth rate over the past two quarters.
The latest forecasts for 2018 are for 2.3 percent GDP growth in the Euro Area, 2.2 percent in Switzerland, and a more modest 1.4 percent in the UK. Altogether, this is a fairly respectable economic performance that continues to build broad-based consumer and business confidence.
Europe’s $20 trillion economy is, by many measures, the world’s largest and among its wealthiest. There are about 39,000 ultra-high-net-worth individuals based in Europe, yet Europeans have only recently begun to embrace business aviation in a meaningful way.
Fully 51 percent of today’s fleet of more than 2,600 business jets has been delivered new just since the beginning of 2008, making Europe’s fleet among the world’s youngest. With an average age of 14.5 years, the average business jet in Europe has a similar age profile to fleets in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific—regions often categorized as emerging or developing sales territories.
European business aircraft owners and operators are quite optimistic about the industry’s position in the current business cycle, scoring highest among four regions that are tracked on a quarterly basis by JetNet iQ surveys. While optimism does not always translate into new aircraft orders or higher flight operations activity, it is almost always a precursor to clearer skies ahead. In the sometimes dreary weather conditions at this time of year in Geneva, blue skies ahead will be welcome indeed.
Rolland (Rollie) Vincent is president of Rolland Vincent Associates, a Plano, Texas-based aviation consultancy with a focus on market research, strategy, and forecasting. He can be reached via <a href="mailto:rvincent@rollandvincent.com">email</a> or by telephone at (972) 439-2069.

AINsight: Europe Could Lead Bizav Recovery

Europe is home base to almost 4,000 business aircraft, including more than 2,600 jets and 1,300 turboprops.

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