I don’t know how much more dire the predictions about pilot and mechanic shortages need to get before action is taken. Reading Boeing’s annual pilot and maintenance technician forecasts tells me the alarm bells are ringing, but no one seems to be listening. And Boeing’s 2015 forecasts once again predict an unprecedented demand for personnel to fly and maintain the tens of thousands of airplanes the company expects will be placed into commercial service over the next 20 years. According to its predictions, the aviation industry will have to provide “more than one million new airline pilots and maintenance technicians between now and 2034.” The greatest projected need continues to be in Asia, where Boeing predicts demand for 226,000 new pilots and 238,000 technicians. In North America, the projected demand is 95,000 and 113,000, respectively. (The projected need in Europe is similar to that in North America: 95,000 new pilots and 101,000 technicians. The rest of the world is broken down by Boeing as follows: Latin America, 47,000 for both new pilots and technicians; the Middle East, 60,000 and 66,000; and Africa, 18,000 and 22,000.)
These are staggering numbers of new aviation personnel needed in the not-too-distant future. Especially when you consider that, at least in the U.S., we are not seeing the growth needed in the numbers of young people going into aviation as careers. For mechanics, there are many reasons. The most common one I see is that aviation mechanics earn significantly less than, say, automobile mechanics. But that is changing–and changing fast–as the number of qualified mechanics shrinks rapidly. For pilots, the two issues I hear most frequently are the high cost of college and flight training–especially when taken at the same time–and the low wages for entry-level pilots, particularly at commuter airlines.
With more than 40 years experience in the aviation industry, The Honorable John Goglia, was the first and only Airframe and Powerplant mechanic to receive a presidential appointment to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). He served from August 1995 to June 2004.
As a Board Member, Mr. Goglia distinguished himself in numerous areas of transportation safety. In particular, he was instrumental in raising awareness of airport safety issues, including the importance of airport crash fire and rescue operations and the dangers of wildlife at airports. He played a key role in focusing international attention on the increasing significance of aircraft maintenance in aviation accidents. He pressed, successfully, for greater integration of civilian and military safety information, becoming a featured speaker at national aviation symposiums attended by military leaders and major defense contractors. He is a leading proponent of airplane child safety seats.
Prior to becoming a Board Member, Mr. Goglia held numerous positions in the airline industry. He started as a mechanic for United Airlines and eventually joined Allegheny, which became USAir. Additionally, he was involved for more than 20 years as a union flight safety representative on accident investigation teams. There, he developed a safety program for his union, the International Association of Machinists, and was its representative for NTSB investigations. For twelve years, he operated his own aircraft service company.
Numerous prestigious groups have recognized Mr. Goglia’s contributions to aviation safety. Aviation Week & Space Technology awarded him a coveted 2004 Laurel for his outstanding service as an NTSB Board member. The Society of Automotive Engineers presented him with the Aerospace Chair Award for outstanding leadership in 2003 and the Marvin Whitlock Award for outstanding management accomplishment in 2002.
