Natalia Orlova, chief of market analytics with Alfa-Bank, believes Russia’s current consumer-spending-based economic model has reached its limits, regardless of the political conflict with the West. Even though the geopolitics matter, she said, the economy works in its own ways, and the overall health of the business aviation sector, worldwide, is deeply affected by its ups and downs. Speaking at the Business Aviation Forum 2015 held in Moscow on the eve of this week's JetExpo show, she said, “There was a period when the Russian economy was overheated, notably in 2005-2007, and even in 2011-2012 when the GDP grew at 4 percent annually. We are unlikely to see such figures any more.” This year Russia’s GDP is expected to decline by 3-to-3.5 percent and then level off. “At best, if the oil prices rise again to over $100 per barrel,” Orlova noted, “we can expect a 2-to-3 percent GDP rise.”
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