It has been two years since the economy went south, dragging business aviation right behind, and a year-and-a-half since a panel of “top economists” formed by the non-profit National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared the recession over as of June 2009. Most recently, data from various sources suggests an increase in both charter and fractional activity, and the unprecedented inventory of used aircraft for sale (the younger ones, at least) is starting to dwindle. On the other hand, the new aircraft deliveries and billings data from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association is hardly encouraging. So, where are we now? Here is what a selection of business aviation’s leaders and analysts think. They’re bound to know at least as much as the NBER, and if they’re right, hang on tight because this bumpy ride is not over yet.
Jack Pelton
Chairman, president and CEO,
Cessna Aircraft
Business jet manufacturer
The National Business Aviation Association Annual Meeting & Convention of 2008 was “interesting,” recalled Pelton with considerable understatement. “We went into the show with record backlogs and were taking orders in unprecedented numbers.”
But less than three weeks earlier, Lehman Brothers had declared bankruptcy. By the time the show opened, fuel costs were rising and credit was getting tighter. “There was bad news, but we were still taking orders; we were sitting on record backlogs and we assumed those backlogs would remain solid,” Pelton said.
But they didn’t. The economy went from bad to worse and from worse to a full recession. And it dragged the business aviation industry down with it all through 2009 and into early 2010. “It took our company and cut it in half–revenues, demand, production and workforce, ” Pelton said.
