Eurocontrol has maintained its outlook that flight movements in Europe will recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2025, but it has issued a stark warning that the growth likely will slow or even stagnate afterward. “Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range. Moreover, uncertainties surrounding further deterioration of the economy, possible escalation of the geopolitical tensions, or other unpredictable events may have a negative impact on this forecast,” the Brussels-based intergovernmental organization noted on Monday as it released its seven-year outlook covering 2023 to 2029.
The forecast projects that the number of flights will grow on average only 1.5 percent per year after 2025 under its so-called “base” forecast, which specifies a 1.7 percent year-over-year increase in 2026, 1.4 percent in 2027, 1.5 percent in 2028, and 0.9 percent in 2029. Its previous seven-year forecast, published in October last year, still projected a 2.2 percent year-over-year growth rate in 2026, and 2 percent in 2027 and 2028. Under Eurocontrol’s new “low” forecast, annual growth of flight movements in Europe will stagnate from 2025 onwards, with a 0.1 percent decline in 2026, a 0.2 percent decline in 2027, and a 0.3 percent decline in 2029. Only 2028 will see growth, at 0.2 percent. The low scenario in Eurocontrol’s October forecast still projected an annual growth rate of 1.2 to 1.3 percent for 2026, 2027, and 2028.
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