Contributor - Middle East

Peter Shaw-Smith

Although November's Dubai Airshow marked the first major aviation event to take place in almost two years due to the coronavirus hiatus, the February 15 to 18 Singapore Airshow will arguably prove just as consequential as it sends an all-important signal that the Asia-Pacific region is open for business.

 


With little alternative option, the organizers’ decision to press ahead with the show in its regular slot in the calendar has led to some trade visitors and exhibitors reversing earlier decisions to attend, as blanket measures to halt the spread of the virus on the island have complicated participation.

 


A Singapore Ministry of Health update on January 21 said the number of confirmed Omicron cases had started to rise more sharply over the previous&nbsp;week. Inoculated travelers could enter Changi Airport through vaccinated travel lanes without quarantine, but required mandatory regular testing.

 


“With our high vaccination rates, steady uptake of booster doses, and Safe Management Measures (SMMs) including Vaccination Differentiated SMMs, the number of severe cases remains low,” it said. “However, as Omicron is more transmissible than Delta, we should prepare for further surges in infections in the weeks ahead.”

 


The Straits Times said it expected exhibitor attendance at the show to fall to around a third of the 2020 figure of 930, adding that business-jet OEMs Gulfstream and Bombardier were among the big names to cancel plans to attend before the end of January.

 


As of January 31, the official exhibitor list included 314 companies from 26 countries, with the U.S. providing 102, Singapore 38, Australia 35, France 33,&nbsp;and Germany 20. Boeing, Airbus, and Embraer all planned to attend, as did Honeywell International, Collins Aerospace, Lockheed Martin, Liebherr-Aerospace SAS, and Lufthansa Technik.

 


An official roster of aircraft on static display included only 11 aircraft, including three Airbus cargo airplanes and the A350-1000, five business jets, and one helicopter. Organizers have scheduled an aviation CEO forum to take place on February 15 and an invitation-only sustainable aviation forum on&nbsp;February 16 and 17.

 


“Today’s safe management measures [will] have an impact on the overall participation capacity at the upcoming airshow,” Experia Events managing director Leck Chet Lam told AIN. “We have planned an event that focuses on the quality of exhibitors and visitors to ensure a meaningful event for our participants. All of us involved in the Singapore Airshow, exhibitors, visitors, government, need to work even closer together to find the best way forward, and ensure that we never lose sight of the long-term potential of the aviation industry, whatever the immediate situation might be.”

 


The region’s Covid-19 strategies have hit Singapore Airlines (SIA) and Changi Airport hard. Official statistics issued by the Changi Airport Group show that after hosting 68.3 million passengers in 2019, throughput fell 83 percent to 11.8 million in 2020 and a further 74 percent to 3.1 million last year.

 


“No Asia-Pacific routes now feature in aviation's top-20 international city pairs,” David Bentley, chief airports analyst at the Sydney-based Centre for Aviation (CAPA), told AIN. “International capacity recovery has been far stronger for Europe and North America.”

 


Changi Airport has experienced a palpable lull in recent months. “The Terminal 5 project has been paused for a study on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the aviation sector and we do not have anything significant on future developments to share at the moment,” an airport spokesperson told AIN.

 


However, CAPA's Bentley said some airports such as Seoul Incheon continue with their multi-year phased expansion plans while others like Hong Kong had made no announcements about scaling back their plans. “The Hong Kong government’s plans include an additional runway and [represent] one of the most expensive projects in the world,” he said.

 


The International Air Transport Association's ‘Economic Performance of the Airline Industry’ report said in October that Asia-Pacific airlines, in general, have suffered from strict government behavior, with slower and diverse approaches to vaccination rollouts compared with Europe and North America, especially in emerging countries.

 


“On the other hand, China’s domestic market is strong and airlines in the country have started to achieve cash breakeven,” it said. “In addition, the region’s role as a manufacturing hub benefits local airlines’ cargo revenues. Overall, net losses in 2022 are forecast to decline to $2.4 billion from $11.2 billion.”

 


Subhas Menon, director-general of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA), told AIN the industry continued to actively engage governments to adopt a Covid-normal approach and to gradually reopen borders with streamlined protocols, policies, and practices, as “current arrangements are complex and confusing, which itself is a demand-dampener," he explained. “Pent-up demand is transparent as bookings pile up as soon as a route is reopened. The problem is borders were kept closed, while travel restrictions constricted airline operations and therefore demand.”

 


Cargo helped to mitigate deepening losses but never did enough to overcome the loss of passenger revenue. “Hopefully, the omicron threat fizzles out,” Menon said. “It is important that governments adopt simple, objective and risk-based regulations and protocols to reopen safely and seamlessly.”

 


Lufthansa Technik vice president for Asia-Pacific corporate sales Thomas Boettger told AIN in December the regional Covid-19 outlook saw some countries imposing new restrictions in late 2021. In addition, as a result of their airlines’ contacts with African nations, Singapore suspended access for travelers from the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia until further notice in early December.

 


“The Japanese have pretty much locked down again,” he said. “They were just opening for students and people with visas; this has now been reduced to just Japanese nationals. Singapore is slightly increasing, but still keeping the vaccinated travel lanes open. Quarantine in China has extended to 21 days. That's probably one of the big question marks facing the recovery in [2022].”

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