Gregory Polek has spent his entire career in aviation journalism with AIN, starting as a proofreader and assistant to then-managing editor Mary Mahoney in 1995 after serving an internship with&nbsp;New Jersey Monthly&nbsp;magazine and completing his B.A. degree in English/Writing at New Jersey’s William Paterson College. By 1997 Polek accepted a position as an associate editor, covering the regional airline beat for&nbsp;Aviation International News&nbsp;in place of retiring industry veteran Don Anderson. The assignment took Polek across North America and Europe to profile regional airlines varying in size and mission from the likes of floatplane operators Kenmore Air and Chalk’s Ocean Airways to regional jet operators such as SkyWest and American Eagle. Today, in his dual role as Air Transport Editor and International Airshow Editor, Polek writes, edits, and manages AIN’s commercial aviation content while overseeing each of the company’s daily international air show publications in Paris, Farnborough, Singapore, and Dubai. Most recently Polek has assumed oversight of daily coverage of the Helicopter Association International’s annual Heli-Expo convention.

Senior Editor

Gregory Polek

Research led by the UK’s Cranfield University has found that the Covid 19 pandemic will lead to a smaller, more consolidated air transport industry in the future. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966692320304841?via%3Dihub">The study</a>—involving a series of interviews with senior aviation industry executives along with analysis of flight and air freight data—provides an early assessment of the medium- and long-term effects of Covid 19 on both passenger and cargo traffic. Interviewees expressed concern about the possible differences in state aid and how those variations could affect competitive balance in a post-Covid environment.

 


The executives largely agreed that Covid will most likely affect full-service network carriers the most because the recovery in international markets will prove slower than in domestic markets. Several also identified&nbsp;the potential entry of new airlines in international carriers’ home hub markets as a threat.

 


Meanwhile, interviewees identified regional airlines as possible short-term winners during the recovery period as they could potentially help full-service carriers adjust feed capacity. They also expect low-cost carriers to concentrate their efforts in primary markets and possibly enter hub airports while reducing frequencies at the route level. As a result, regional and secondary airports will likely suffer as capacity opens in larger markets, attracting airlines and enabling larger hub airports to reinforce their positions.

 


The executives also cited concern about the recovery of business travel, mainly due to the cancellation of meetings, incentives, conferencing and exhibitions events, and the uneven lift of travel bans. Meanwhile, many&nbsp;said they expect a faster recuperation of the leisure passenger segment; however, reduced disposable incomes would curtail propensity to fly and require significant support, such as route subsidies. They also identified fear and health concerns as more of a concern among leisure travelers than among business travelers.

 


Finally, all the interviewees believed that authorities would impose new health screening controls at airports, translating into higher costs for those facilities and passengers alike.

 


“We focused on identifying aspects that can structurally redefine the aviation industry in the medium and long term for both passenger and cargo traffic, particularly around supply and demand, traffic resilience, passenger behavior, health regulations, and business ethics,” said Cranfield University senior lecturer Pere Suau-Sanchez. “Understanding these structural elements in an integrated way can provide more confidence in efforts to predict the future context. As the views of senior stakeholders might change as the crisis evolves, a record of their early assessments also represents a valuable reference for future analysis.”

 


Cranfield conducted interviews with 16 managers from across the airline and airport sectors (including major, low-cost and regional carriers, large hub, medium-size and regional airports, a pilots’ union, and an aviation insurance broker) between March 19 and April 17. Researchers also analyzed global flight supply and air freight data—including origin and destination airport, time of departure and arrival, number of seats supplied, aircraft type, and day of operation—for the first four months of 2020.

News about commercial airlines, including regulations, aircraft orders, safety, acquisitions, and mergers.

Cranfield Research Points to a Smaller Air Transport Industry

A recently released study by Cranfield University shed light on expectations for the future of air transport.

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News and developments about airplanes, helicopters and unmanned air vehicles used in all varieties of operations, including airlines, military, business, commercial, general aviation and private.

News about environmental issues relating to aircraft operations, including noise issues, emissisions, and regulations. See Fuel for biofuel.

News and issues relating to international air transport and cargo carriers, national airlines and regional airlines, including aircraft, engines, personnel, acquisitions, accidents, safety, security and training.

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News and issues relating to the aerospace industry that are related to the science, engineering and business of flight in space involving civil, industrial and military applications, and similar topics related to flight in the atmosphere of the Earth that are not covered more directly by other AINonline subject channels. In other words, both astronautical and aeronautical subjects, except for those aeronautical topics that are specifically covered elsewhere on this website.

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New developments at airports including regulations and noise issues; legal disputes; openings, acquisitions and mergers.

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News and developments about everything that goes into the cabin of an aircraft, from floor coverings to headliners, with a special emphasis on in-flight entertainment, communications and other electronics for passengers. If it is in the cabin of an aircraft, it’s covered here.

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