Aviation International News senior correspondent Ian Goold has been involved in aerospace since 1964 and in aviation media for more than 40 years. He enjoyed a 20-year career at Flight International magazine, where he was latterly air-transport editor before turning freelance in 1993. A winner of the European Regions Airline Association Hank McGonagle award for excellence in aerospace journalism and a Royal Aeronautical Society Aerospace Journalist of the Year global&nbsp;award, he has edited or contributed to aerospace and aviation magazines, special publications, and websites in Africa, Asia/Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and North and South America. Ian entered aerospace as an apprentice at the British Aircraft Corporation at Brooklands (Weybridge), where he worked on production and final assembly lines of the Vickers Super VC10, and BAC One-Eleven , and manufacture of Concorde major sub-assemblies. He subsequently graduated from the BAC Design Training School to work in the airframe structures drawing office (including design of international future projects, such as the Panavia Tornado multi-role combat aircraft) before joining Flight International in 1973. Apart from years of reading aircraft magazines and books, his first direct contact with aviation media had come during the early 1970s when he was involved at Brooklands with the Weybridge Man-powered Aircraft Group, which designed and built the tenth aircraft to fly under purely human power. As an aviation journalist, he has worked at more than&nbsp; 50 of the major biennial&nbsp;global and regional international aerospace industry shows at Le Bourget, Farnborough, Singapore, and Dubai (having missed attending only one "Farnborough" since 1960), plus innumerable NBAA, HAI, (U.S.) AOPA, and EBACE Conventions and ERA Assemblies. His favourite aircraft is the Hawker Hunter, of which – as a schoolboy – he heard hundreds make their first flights from Dunsfold, where also on September 24, 2013, he saw the penultimate landing of the VC10 (happily involving an example of which he had witnessed the maiden takeoff in 1970) a day before the last example made the design's final flight (unless, of course....).

Senior correspondent

Ian Goold

The recent global financial recession notwithstanding, long-term airline traffic growth will average 4.7 percent per year, while cargo traffic grows at a slightly higher annual rate, 4.8 percent, according to the latest 20-year market forecast published by Airbus. However, the company projected a marked disparity between traffic growth in “advanced” and “emerging” markets. COO for customers John Leahy noted a divergence in gross domestic product trends between the groups since 2000. Up to the turn of the millennium, GDP growth in mature economies kept in step with that in the developing world before North America and Europe faltered in the first half of the past decade to create a “two-speed world.” But all economies collapsed after 2007, during which period emerging economies had seen slower growth, according to the Airbus executive.


Published last week, the forecast shows passenger traffic among emerging economies–identified as Asia, Africa, China, the CIS, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Latin America–growing at 6.8 percent and accounting for more than 40 percent of passenger traffic by 2032. Meanwhile, traffic between those markets and advanced economies–comprising Japan, North America and Western Europe–will expand at a 4.9-percent annual rate to account for 30 percent of global traffic by 2032.


By then, passenger aircraft carrying 100 seats or more and freighters carrying more than 10 metric tons will number 36,556–more than double today’s 17,739 aircraft, according to the report. Single-aisle passenger designs represent the largest element (20,242 deliveries) in the predicted 20-year demand for 29,226 new machines, ahead of twin-aisle aircraft (7,273, including 494 freighters), and very large aircraft such as the A380 and 747-8 (1,711). Airbus values predicted future deliveries at $4.4 trillion at current catalogue prices.


Even though emerging markets now represent key market drivers, advanced economies remain prevalent and will account for approximately 60 percent of all traffic in 2032, primarily in Europe and North America, according to Airbus. It sees Middle East airline traffic growing at the highest rate (7.1 percent per year) to account for 12 percent of all 2032 traffic. Airbus analysts conclude that the three largest regions by airline domicile will remain Asia-Pacific, Europe and North America, accounting for 34 percent, 22 percent and 18 percent of global traffic, respectively, in 2032.


Due to the growth in Asia-Pacific traffic, Airbus expressed “no surprise” that the region will require 47 percent of new very large aircraft. “It is equally important to note that more than 40 percent of new aircraft deliveries [with] over 100 seats will be within North America and Europe,” said the report.


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Airbus Forecast: Emerging Markets To Lead Traffic Growth

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