While any direct comparison of the fundamentally incongruent market forecasts published by the Western world’s four civil airframe manufacturers might seem like an exercise in futility, a little extrapolation can reveal some basic differences in opinion, methodology and, maybe most significantly, equipment offerings. Long a believer in the benefits of hub-bypass strategies, Boeing, for example, sees far less demand for equipment in the size category occupied by the A380 superjumbo than does Airbus, while Airbus predicts nearly a reciprocal difference in requirement for large twin-aisle types. However, the biggest variation lies with the two companies’ single-aisle projections, which, apart from the fact that Boeing includes regional jets in its report, essentially accounts for the entire difference in forecast totals.
Discounting the 2,020 regional jets in its forecast, Boeing predicts a total unit demand for nearly 32,000 airplanes over the next 20 years, while Airbus projects a need for 28,200. In the single-aisle category, Boeing sees deliveries totaling 23,240, compared with Airbus’s projection of just 19,520.
Gregory Polek has spent his entire career in aviation journalism with AIN, starting as a proofreader and assistant to then-managing editor Mary Mahoney in 1995 after serving an internship with New Jersey Monthly magazine and completing his B.A. degree in English/Writing at New Jersey’s William Paterson College. By 1997 Polek accepted a position as an associate editor, covering the regional airline beat for Aviation International News in place of retiring industry veteran Don Anderson. The assignment took Polek across North America and Europe to profile regional airlines varying in size and mission from the likes of floatplane operators Kenmore Air and Chalk’s Ocean Airways to regional jet operators such as SkyWest and American Eagle. Today, in his dual role as Air Transport Editor and International Airshow Editor, Polek writes, edits, and manages AIN’s commercial aviation content while overseeing each of the company’s daily international air show publications in Paris, Farnborough, Singapore, and Dubai. Most recently Polek has assumed oversight of daily coverage of the Helicopter Association International’s annual Heli-Expo convention.
