The Japanese trifecta of tragedy has some people rethinking risk-assessment models and catastrophic risk in general. And maybe those of us in aviation should as well. After all, these models are only as good as the assumptions that are made about the likelihood of an event–or a series of events–occurring. In Japan, someone underestimated the potential threat of a 9.0 earthquake, a tsunami higher than the seawalls around the nuclear power plants and the ability of the nuclear plants to keep cooling in the face of these natural disasters. A lot of “someones,” including government regulators, presumably went along with the risk assessments that minimized the potential strength of an earthquake, the height of an eventual tsunami and, of course, a lot of things related to protecting the nuclear rods from meltdown and the safety of the method used for storage of spent fuel.
It’s only now, in the weeks after the stunning loss of life and still-unfolding nuclear drama, that experts are saying that the scale of the natural disasters was in fact predictable and damage to the nuclear plants was not only foreseeable but preventable. Earthquakes greater than those the nuclear plants were built to withstand were within the potential range for the area and so on. Is this just a case of 20-20 hindsight? Or were there powerful factors–the pursuit of profits–at work, clouding people’s visions of risks and disastrous outcomes if all the remote, but catastrophic, risks lined up? How good is a risk assessment model if worst-case scenarios are discounted?
With more than 40 years experience in the aviation industry, The Honorable John Goglia, was the first and only Airframe and Powerplant mechanic to receive a presidential appointment to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). He served from August 1995 to June 2004.
As a Board Member, Mr. Goglia distinguished himself in numerous areas of transportation safety. In particular, he was instrumental in raising awareness of airport safety issues, including the importance of airport crash fire and rescue operations and the dangers of wildlife at airports. He played a key role in focusing international attention on the increasing significance of aircraft maintenance in aviation accidents. He pressed, successfully, for greater integration of civilian and military safety information, becoming a featured speaker at national aviation symposiums attended by military leaders and major defense contractors. He is a leading proponent of airplane child safety seats.
Prior to becoming a Board Member, Mr. Goglia held numerous positions in the airline industry. He started as a mechanic for United Airlines and eventually joined Allegheny, which became USAir. Additionally, he was involved for more than 20 years as a union flight safety representative on accident investigation teams. There, he developed a safety program for his union, the International Association of Machinists, and was its representative for NTSB investigations. For twelve years, he operated his own aircraft service company.
Numerous prestigious groups have recognized Mr. Goglia’s contributions to aviation safety. Aviation Week & Space Technology awarded him a coveted 2004 Laurel for his outstanding service as an NTSB Board member. The Society of Automotive Engineers presented him with the Aerospace Chair Award for outstanding leadership in 2003 and the Marvin Whitlock Award for outstanding management accomplishment in 2002.
