A better-than-expected start to 2010 has prompted the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to significantly improve its forecast for anticipated airline losses this year. On March 11, it halved the forecast loss for its member carriers from the $5.6 billion it predicted in December 2009 to $2.8 billion. IATA attributes the rosier (though still negative) prognosis largely to economic recovery in the key emerging markets of the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America, where carriers reported passenger traffic growth of 6.5 percent and 11 percent, respectively, in January.
By comparison, IATA forecasters now talk in terms of a “two speed” global airline market, as Europe and North America see much weaker growth in the first month of 2010–just 3.1 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively. IATA now predicts improved traffic growth over the whole of 2010 of 5.6 percent in the passenger sector, versus the 4.5 percent it forecast in December, and 12 percent for freight, compared with the earlier estimate of 7 percent.
