With a commendable bow toward candor, Honeywell released its civil helicopter market outlook at Heli-Expo by qualifying the results of its survey: “The 2003 market outlook presents a snapshot of the market at a point in time and does not reflect unforeseen events such as an unexpected economic contraction, sharp increases in fuel costs, a fuel crisis, imposition of heavy user fees or other unfavorable regulations/taxes that could affect results in future years. Demand for new helicopters is highly price sensitive. Decisions by aircraft manufacturers to offer discounts or raise prices can significantly influence sales activity on affected models.” In other words: “Here’s the latest data. What happens next is nearly anybody’s guess.”
Unlike the Rolls-Royce study, Honeywell’s focuses mainly on the next five years, although it does make some 10-year predictions. Honeywell foresees deliveries of about 2,600 new helicopters during the five-year period 2003 to 2007, an increase of 100 units, or 4 percent, over the 2,500 shipped during the period 1998 to 2002. The survey reflects a compounded growth rate of 3 percent and estimates total deliveries of 5,400 aircraft through 2012.
